Michael Thomas, Zack Moss and eight more fantasy football dynasty league buy-low targets

Publish date: 2024-06-20

Buy low, sell high. The axiom is well known across many disparate commodity-based landscapes and most certainly applies to fantasy football as well. Being that dynasty is a buy-and-hold proposition, there’s no fantasy format where the phrase is more important.

I love writing about undervalued and overvalued players. While not every reader will agree with my assessments, in my estimation there’s no greater desired piece of content than the “Dynasty Buys” article. While selling high takes much more thought and timing, buying low is much easier to execute, carries little risk but offers tremendous impact if performed well. Remember that when we sell-high, we’re doing so with a player who is currently very popular and productive. Not so with a buy-low proposition, at least in most cases.

Before getting to my list, let me quickly define what I look for when identifying players. This subject could be broken down into multiple strategies based upon the competition level or rebuilding status of a dynasty team. Obviously, the age and status of your dynasty roster will determine strategy. Buying low should be of interest to any team, regardless of competition level. Who doesn’t like greater production at a lower price?

For this piece, I’m targeting young and mid-career players who have no less than three-to-four serviceable years remaining. This does not mean I expect them to be out of the league in that time but, instead, that they will likely be within the accepted range for production decline. Generally, I will not highlight rookies here. I’m looking for players who are somewhat established but with an ADP well below my expectations for production, or younger players with a catalyst for significant upside not recognized, or appreciated, by the community.

And as always, any referenced data, rankings or ADP can be found at DynastyLeagueFootball.com. The Player Profile pages, which contain historical ADP graphs, are always free!

Dynasty Buys

Michael Thomas, WR NO
Age: 28 Rank: WR15 ADP: 32

Starting with Thomas is a bit of a gimme, yet I’ve still received some push-back related to his value as a buy-low target, many believing he’s fairly valued. I get it, but I disagree.

Detractors will reference his recent injury history and the loss of Drew Brees to retirement. Both facts do decrease his ADP4 value from this time last year. But now in his age-28 season, the receiver who reeled in 274 receptions over his past two fully healthy campaigns (2018-2019) is carrying an ADP (32) not seen since his rookie season, while still possessing at least four years of top potential production to come. Regression is possible due to further injury or poor play from the new quarterback, but Thomas is fully healthy and the passing attack will, and must, flow through his capable hands.

In his past four regular season games of 2020, while still not 100%, Thomas produced 30 receptions and 343 yards on 37 targets. Prior to his significant ankle injury suffered early in 2020, the top target hadn’t missed a game since late in 2016. There’s no reason to believe he won’t out-produce his current WR15 ranking in 2021 by a comfortable margin. He’s an easy buy-low at his current value.

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
Age: 24 Rank: WR26 ADP: 60

I’ve done an about-face on the Smith-Schuster’s value now that he’s been summarily devalued by the dynasty community. When, as a rookie, the Juju hype train left the station, I was dubious that the youngest player (at that time) in the NFL would ever produce to his ascending value. Sharing an offense with Antonio Brown is certain to boost WR2 numbers and that’s exactly what transpired before Brown’s exit from the Steel City.

Injury and poor performance have tanked JJSS’s value as evidenced by his ADP60 and WR26 values — unfairly so. He’s now on a one-year contract and still, arguably, the WR1 in what could be a potent offense. His value continued to decline throughout 2020 even while on the road to producing 97 receptions, 831 yards and nine touchdowns. While his yards per reception was anemic, 2020 looks to have been an anomaly in that regard.

Smith-Schuster is playing for his next contract, only recently turned 24, and should easily produce well above his current WR3 value. Acquire him now before the season and before his 2022 situation is known.

Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN
Age: 22 Rank: WR21 ADP: 57

The second-year receiver came into the league and saw an ADP40 value before the decline set in, eventually falling to a low of ADP59 this past March.

One of my favorite strategies is to target Year 2 players who under-performed to their rookie expectations. Dynasty is a “what have you done for me lately” affair and fantasy managers bail off bandwagons as quickly as they boarded them. This is the case with Jeudy, and I’ve been scooping him up wherever I can.

Entering the league, Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb were 1A and 1B atop the rookie receiver rankings but the gap has now widened considerably. Even with a shaky quarterback situation, Jeudy managed 856 yards and three touchdowns on his ridiculously poor 52-of-113 Catch Rate. Note this was without WR1 Courtland Sutton (ACL) in the mix to pull double-teams. It was arguably strike one, two and three for the rookie in 2021 and yet he still managed to produce.

Now in 2021, the sophomore has a year of experience, Sutton is on track to return and while the quarterback situation has yet to be resolved, there is reason for greater optimism. Add a slight chance Aaron Rodgers could find his way to Mile High and plenty of catalysts for higher production exist.

If Jeudy was available in 2021 for dynasty rookie drafts, he’d be ranked as the second receiver behind only Ja’Marr Chase, placing him squarely in the Top 6 players. He’s an easy well-valued, high-upside acquisition at his current WR21 ranking.

Russell Gage, WR ATL
Age: 25 Rank: WR78 ADP: 130

Russell Gage represents another unappreciated or unrecognized opportunity by the dynasty community. With Julio Jones out of the picture, Gage has already been tabbed as a starter across from new WR1 Calvin Ridley. If rookie tight end Kyle Pitts is as good as advertised, Gage could be running free in the secondary.

Even as the third wheel in the Falcons’ offense in 2020, Gage finished as PPR’s WR37. But over the last seven games of the season, the slight receiver soaked up 57 targets, converting on 37 with three touchdowns. The increased role bodes well for 2021.

An acquisition of Gage won’t carry a large premium and, thus, won’t sting if he doesn’t perform. In either case, he’s a worthy addition now before training camps pick up speed.

David Montgomery, RB CHI
Age: 24 Rank: RB22 ADP: 43

Recently turned 24 and fresh off an overall RB4 performance in 2020, most still seem to see Montgomery as a one-hit wonder who only finished where he did due to injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler, along with the early exit to backfield complement Tarik Cohen.

While I’m in no way expecting a Top 5 finish at the position again, that’s not to say I wouldn’t acquire Montgomery on the cheap if available. Reasons exist why all players perform or under-perform, and I highly suggest you see through the noise and focus on the “what is” of a player’s potential value.

Montgomery played in 15 games in 2020, carried the rock nearly 250 times, produced 1,070 yards on the ground (4.3 ypc) while scoring eight touchdowns. Due to the absence of Cohen, Mongtomery also tallied 54 receptions and another two touchdowns. Sure, Cohen is healthy and due back, but the Bears’ offense will run through Montgomery again, and his age, when combined with his RB22 value, provides what I believe is a compelling buy-low target.

J.K. Dobbins, RB BAL
Age: 22 Rank: RB8 ADP: 26

Dobbins is an interesting study in that what we have is a divergence between his RB8 positional ranking but an ADP26, which is showing a RB17 selection. When this occurs, it typically demonstrates optimism in a player’s long-term value but pessimism in his near-term performance expectations. When seen, as long as you share in the long-term optimism, you must pounce quickly.

Dobbins’ value is suffering from a belief that quarterback Lamar Jackson’s rushing ways will impact touchdown production. While seemingly a certainty, Dobbins has fallen too far. Mark Ingram is out of the picture and when Dobbins was featured in the second half of 2020, he produced seven touchdowns, scoring six weeks in a row to close out the 2020 regular season.

With rushing attempts set to potentially double from his 134 mark in his rookie season, J.K. Dobbins should be ranked much higher in dynasty. He’s an immediate buy ahead of what should be a fantastic sophomore season.

Zack Moss, RB BUF
Age: 23 Rank: RB39 ADP: 104

The acquisition of Buffalo’s Zack Moss is all about value into opportunity. The team elected to not address the position early in the 2021 NFL Draft, providing a boost to both Moss and backfield teammate Devin Singletary. But Moss appears to be the back to roster.

While the second-year back only saw 112 attempts across 13 games in 2020, averaging 4.3 ypc and scoring four touchdowns, Moss began to assert himself late in the year following Singletary’s somewhat lackluster production. All reports out of Buffalo assert the team favors Moss and would like to see him take control of the backfield in 2021.

With an offense built upon the capable arm and mobility of Josh Allen, more emphasis on the run game should be in the cards, and if Moss is able to find production early in the year, he’ll well outperform his RB39 ranking in 2021. Allen’s mobility does provide touchdown risk for Moss, but when buying low, we’re far more concerned about increasing production via increased opportunity. Zack Moss fits this mold.

Kareem Hunt, CLE RB
Age: 25 Rank: RB23 ADP: 58

A running back by committee (RBBC) with Nick Chubb has negatively impacted Kareem Hunt’s value but despite the shared load, he still managed a RB10 (PPR) performance in 2020.

Hunt is currently ranked near RB3 status even while producing both as a runner and receiver in Cleveland’s developing, high-upside offense. In 2020, Hunt produced 841 yards and six touchdowns on the ground while also converting 38 receptions into 304 yards and five additional touchdowns.

There remains no threat to his current role and should Chubb fall to injury, Hunt’s value would skyrocket. While not a free agent until 2023, his drafted value remains discounted to expected production.

Sam Darnold, QB CAR
Age: 24 Rank: QB28 ADP: 218

Let other managers fall over younger quarterbacks such as Tua Tagovailoa (QB14), Jalen Hurts (QB22) or even Zach Wilson (QB21), who replaced Darnold. He’s still only 24 years of age, has tremendous arm talent and now takes the helm of an offense built for success with young receivers and Christian McCaffrey returning.

After studying Darnold and the circus that was the Jets during his time in New York, I cannot hold his lack of production over his head. While I’m not willing to christen him as a sure-fire QB2 until he’s productive, I’m acquiring him for next to nothing anywhere I can given the opportunity in front of him.

David Njoku, TE CLE
Age: 25 Rank: TE31 ADP: 239

David Njoku has lost all luster in the dynasty community, but I think the time is right to wade in. I’m not one to seek out many tight end values as there’s always a new train to board every season, but when I can target youth and potential upside for next to nothing in cost, I’ll take it.

His TE31 ranking when combined with his ADP239 value shows the depth of his disfavor, but there are catalysts for plucking him off your waiver wire now as training camps open. Recently turned 25, Njoku is entering the final year of his contract and multiple teams could be in the market for a tight end still in 2021. Buffalo, Carolina, Jacksonville, among others, could all come calling, and Njoku should benefit from a new situation as a free agent in 2022 if he’s not traded before the 2021 trade deadline.

Best of all, Njoku is likely available for free on your waiver wire now. An open roster spot is all you need.

If there are players you are buying or, if you have questions about other players, feel free to drop a comment below.

Stay safe out there and be good to one another!

(Top photo: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

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Michael Thomas, Zack Moss and eight more fantasy football dynasty league buy-low targets

Dynasty Buys